Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
