A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
